Overconfidence is Killing You

Many great organizations are precariously close to decline and death but they are so successful they don’t see it coming.

Jim Collins (How the Mighty Fall), suggests a predictable pattern for how great organizations fall. The five stages are: 1) Hubris born of success, 2) Undisciplined pursuit of more, 3) Denial of risk and peril, 4) Grasping for salvation, 5) Capitulation to irrelevance and death.

Because the stages are linear the first is most important. Hubris born of success sets in motion all the others.

Great organizations all around the world are in a state of decline towards death but they are so successful they don’t see the problem. Click To Tweet

When everything is going exceedingly well the beginning of collapse may be imminent. This seems counterintuitive but scripture confirms it, “Pride goes before destruction and a haughty spirit before a fall” (Proverbs 16:18). Hubris born of success is the first stage of collapse.

When everything is going well, collapse may be imminent. Scripture exhorts, “Pride goes before destruction and a haughty spirit before a fall” (Pr. 16:18). Hubris, born of success, is the first stage of collapse (Collins). Click To Tweet

Hubris is excessive self-confidence. It sets in when organizational accomplishments create a sense of invulnerability.

Hubris is the acceptance of a script casting the leaders or the organization in the role of “chosen ones” or “the enlightened ones”– those who get it as opposed to those who don’t.

Hubris is excessive self-confidence. You know hubris has set in when organizational accomplishments create a sense of invulnerability. Click To Tweet

Hubris entices organizational leaders to assume that future success is guaranteed. The danger here is that their confidence is rooted in a self-referential paradigm, not empirical analysis. They are confident of future success because they are the ones doing it.

Leaders suffer hubris when they are confident of their future success, regardless of what they endeavor to do, because they are the ones doing it. Click To Tweet

Over-confident leaders don’t take the time to interrogate reality when successful. Why analyze what is going well? The best leaders study their success with a healthy degree of suspicion. They are productively paranoid, says Collins.

Humble leaders study success as much as they study failure. They are, in the words of Jim Collins, productively paranoid. Click To Tweet

More is the door to decline. The door that sets an organizational on the slippery slope of capitulation and death is the undisciplined pursuit of more.

Over confidence compels leaders to pursue all kinds of initiatives. Many have nothing to do with their mission, vision or values. It’s hard to resist when you assume success is guaranteed.

Over confident leaders pursue all kinds of initiatives, many that have nothing to do with their mission, vision or values. It’s hard to resist when (you think) success is guaranteed. Click To Tweet

Distractions have been the ruin of many organizations. Discipline is the antidote. There is always more great ideas than there is capacity to execute them.

Show me a leader that has made the difficult but disciplined decision to say no to something “big” or “exciting” and I will show you a leader with a deep burning yes to what matters most. That’s the kind of leader people willingly follow.

There is always more great ideas than there is capacity to execute them. Distractions have been the ruin of many great organizations. Discipline is the antidote. Click To Tweet

Here are five ways to overcome hubris:

• Regularly hang out with people that love you but are not impressed by you. Ask for their feedback all the time, write it down and develop a plan to get better.
• Interrogate reality. Demand of yourself and your team exact reasons for any success you achieve. Track the data in a way that illustrates principles that can become repeatable.
• Celebrate failure. Too many leaders want to hide things when they go badly. Celebrate mistakes by identifying what you have learned from them. Extracting the wisdom of failure is key.
• Create a stop-doing list. Most of our to-do lists are too long. There’s  always more great ideas than capacity to execute them. Stop distractions so you can focus more time and energy on what matters most.
• Find a coach. Even the best athletes, musicians, speakers, executives and consultants have a coach. A coach will help you find your blind spots and overcome them. A coach will help you discern between good, better and best.

Show me a leader that makes a disciplined decision to say no to something big or exciting and I will show you a leader with a deep burning yes to what matters most. A leader worth following. Click To Tweet